Cortina - DH prediction

Breezy Johnson will be Cortina's big DH story.

    The Olympics are basically an extended World Cup meet, with a rarefied cast. But they’re freighted with enormous symbolism, pressure/expectation, and unequaled opportunity for material advancement. The Olympics also generate intrigue within the civilian media, to engage people who otherwise think the competitors take a break from their jobs as teachers, librarians, lawyers, cabinet makers, etc. to assemble every four years to ski race. Lindsey Vonn’s comeback--now with torn ACL--is Olympics’ main hype, by far. Mikaela Shiffrin’s redemption for Beijing failure has floated for months, and will take top spot after Vonn’s events are run. (Each sport’s dedicated fans are following their own dramas, I’m sure. There’s always something up in figure skating, and I imagine curling is intensely fraught when you get to brass tacks.)

I’m realizing that any given race is a 50/50 proposition for each contestant—basically even odds whether they’ll place true to form per the season’s results, or if a spirited win/podium or a gutting 20^th/DNF occurs. Later starters making top finishes is ski racing’s happiest thrill, IMO. It occurs occasionally during the regular season; at the Olympics they’re doubly exciting, I think, since a dedicated but low-profile athlete bursts onto the world stage. Ester Ledecka’s 2018 Super G win is the gold standard, most folks would agree. Hopefully we’ll have a few surprises at Cortina!

Posting the day before each event, once the start list is set.

    I’m picking Breezy Johnson to win the Downhill. She was primed for Beijing, then jacked her knee at Cortina a few weeks before the games. Johnson’s due to uncork a blinder. The Olympics thrive on good stories; Breezy taking gold is a great story.

    I like Kira Weidle-Winkleman and Laura Pirovano for the podium. Kira’s reasserting her superb talent after a couple of lean seasons; Laura on-form is as good as anyone this year. She needs to put it together top-to-bottom and I think she will on home snow. People will go nuts.

    Sofia Goggia is beyond stoked to win this race. Her DH is a bit off-song on tour. Vintage Sofia will do it. She’ll then be required to assume the throne as Italy’s first queen since 1946. (Bet you didn’t know that.)

    Lindsey Vonn can easily podium, but something tells me she’ll fall short. If she wins, of course, it’ll be intergalactic. I don’t question her greatness. I just think for this race, her competitors have more influence than has been acknowledged.

    For Outlier/X Factor, I’m going with Ariane Raedler.

Camille Cerutti is my pick for T10 finish from late starters (25th). She crashed horribly at Beijing DH. She'll do well tomorrow.