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Ilka! Her next step back.


Saalbach Downhill - 23 March 2024 - 2nd place by +0.17


This is my first post since March because my post-season evaluation sprawls and I’m a touch insecure about issuing it. The first installment will appear soon. Also, personal issues distracted me. And ski racing is down the list in importance re our world's socio-political challenges—which is one of athletics’ strongest characteristics. The more I consider how focused—and healthily masochistic, to venture a category—people live their lives, the more admiration I have for folks who devote themselves to physical excellence within a sport’s rules and ethics. Especially an individual sport. (Though as an enthusiastic youthful baseball player, I know team sports’ keen appeal.) Immersed within one’s own body’s capabilities vis-à-vis competitors’ talent, the independent athlete is wholly responsible for her/his performance. Responsible for knowing the competition, the terrain, the possibilities. It’s a way to thrive while shutting out Humanity’s horrors if/as one desires to. I could use such ability. Time to get back into cardio shape.

    My wildest 2024 prediction was picking Ilka Stuhec for DH title. Her excellent 2023 rejuvenation made me (want to) believe she was shaping a fairy-tale triumphal arc, with 2017’s racer making a full return. Team sports occasionally produce fairy tales—the 1969 Mets or Jets; if the Lions had won the Super Bowl last year. Good teams can beat superior teams for a couple of games within a win or go home playoff format. Individual sports, whose EOS standings are based upon the entire season’s performances, deny/don’t permit fairy tales. Ilka is still a top-notch Downhiller, but between her current competition’s talent, and the necessity of improving upon 2023’s superb campaign—2 finishes out of the top 5 in 9 starts; no DNFs—to post EOS at least 200 points better to take the globe, was unrealistic.

    As the two DH seasons’ point standings turned out, though, picking Ilka wasn’t so rash. Goggia won 2023 with 740 points; Stuhec was second on 551; Suter third on 309; Curtoni 4th/308. Conny Huetter’s wonderful 2024 triumph, over eight races instead of 2023’s nine, was achieved on 397 points. Gut-Behrami 2nd on 369; Goggia 3d/350; Venier 4th/346.

    In 2023 DH, 432 points separated 1st and 4th; in 2024, 51 points. 2024’s Downhill season was much more competitive than 2023’s.

    There’s no way to predict how tight a season will be—at least I can’t do it. In 2023 DH, Goggia (5) and Stuhec (2) won 7 of 9 races. (Lie and Curtoni won the other two.) In 2024 DH, each of 8 races had a different winner! Huetter; Bassino; Gut-Behrami; Mowinckel; Venier; Goggia; Flury; Shiffrin. (Query: how often has this happened?) If Ilka had repeated her 2023 record, she’d have waltzed the globe home. So, picking her was fanciful but not risible.

Saalbach DH - 2nd place from bib 18.

  

2024 EOS – Overall 29th

DH 8th – 8 starts – 2nd; 5th; 2xT10; 3xT20; 21st. Not bad. 302 points would be DH 5th 2023.

SG 26th – 8 starts – 8th; 2xT20; 2xT40; 2xT45; DNF. Including SG to show how different the Disciplines are. SG demands precise high-speed turns, which even a top Downhiller may not muster. Further evidence of how exceptional LG-B and Fede are. That said, see 2017 below.

2023 EOS – Overall 11th

DH 2nd – 9 starts – 2x1st; 2x2nd; 4th; 2x5th; 9th; 12th. Superb full season after two serious injuries in previous four years. (2023 SG 30th place.)

2017 EOS  - Overall 2nd

DH 1st – 8 starts – 4x1st; 2x3d; 5th; 8th. Brilliant season. Ilka’s 597 EOS DH points the most between 2012 Vonn 690 and 2023 Goggia 740.

SG 2nd – 7 starts – 2x1st; 2nd; 3d; 5th; 7th; 22nd. An ace SG talent. Unsure/too bad SG didn’t accompany 2023’s DH revival.

    Ilka Stuhec is a massive WAWC talent, and a cool sophisticated soul. I’m figuring she’ll throw it down for another season, perhaps two. As Slovenia’s top active legacy racer, running the Worlds and Olympics would polish off a stellar career. Everyone knows that except for injury, Ilka would have 15+ DH victories instead of 7, and 7 or 8 SG wins instead of 3. “Except for injury” is a bromide, but absolutely true in this case. So I declare: It Is.

    Turning 34 in October, course conditions and competitors’ form will play an increasing role in Stuhec’s viability. But her experience and bravado will keep her 2025 EOS DH T10, no sweat. I’ll venture she’s honed a fast, effective, and safe technique, insofar as “safe” is possible. She pushes to her limit, which years on the carousel have defined and which she accepts. Ilka’s limit is still within elite parameters. One of WAWC’s final Big People from WAWC’s 2005ish-2020ish golden era. Pegging Ilka Stuhec 2025 DH to notch three podiums, 2xT10, and a Worlds T8.


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