Slalom - 2025-26 Pre-season

Zrinka Ljutic - 1st run Flachau 2025

    I participate in the World Cup fantasy racing site propheski.com. It’s fun—a great way to engage the sport by assembling teams of four for each discipline, and predicting the races' first 5 positions. I get pretty invested as the season progresses. It’s interesting how even a vicarious connection to a competitive activity hooks you, prompting anxiety/satisfaction/regret.

    You have a $100,000 budget for each discipline at the beginning to select rosters, with athlete prices set per the previous season’s results. (The racers’ value fluctuates as the schedule proceeds, and you can swap out team members on a restricted basis.) Last year I picked up Breezy Johnson for my DH team for a hundred bucks, since she missed 2024-25. This year she costs 46 grand. I spent around $92,000 on Her Highness for Slalom, figuring she’d finish 1^st or 2^nd every race. Mikaela was impaled in November; my Hire A Deity strategy bombed. This year she’s available for $46,000…and will be on everyone’s team.

    For good reason. Ljutic, Liensberger, Rast can hang with Shiffrin, but can’t beat her unless she falters or if they ski beyond their gourds. HH won four of six SL starts 2024-25 (EOS 4th 486pts) with a 3d, and a 10^th in first race after medieval wound.

    She’ll dust the field this season. Of the ten Slaloms, I think Shiffrin will podium every one, winning five--at least 800 points right there. The suspects below will circulate T8 with Meillard and Slokar and the occasional interloper.

(MS won her first of eight Slalom titles in 2012-13 (688pts), the season Tina Maze eviscerated the tour with 2,414 points, the most ever in Alpine World Cup.)

   Title Number Nine

Take this sister, may it serve you well.

Personally, I’m pulling for Katy Liensberger to fully reclaim her bonafides. An irrepressible spirit, she vaporized 2020-21 SL: 2x1st; 4x2nd; 2x3d; 4^th. 690 pts, to beat Mikaela and Petra in strong form. Good EOS 4th the next year. After a dismal 2023 and a so-so 2024, finished every race last season (10), all T10 with 7xT5, including 2x2nd and a 3d. 509 points. Excellent campaign!! At 28 Katy’s entering her “prime” and will EOS SL 2^d - 4^th. I hedge her final standing because two major talents are ramping up, both with room for significant improvement.

Cross-over or cross-under, Katy's in tune.

Zrinka and Camille are the real deal, no question.

    Zrinka Ljutic is an athlete whose skills at 21 evoke “gifted.” (Turns 22 in January.) 2022-23 she scored 4xT7 with a 3d; 5xDNF scotched her EOS standing, though a decent 12th. 2023-24 EOS SL 8^th—still 5xDNF, but 6xT10 with 3 consecutive 2^nd. 2024-25: 9xT10 with 3x1st and a 2^nd, and a single DNQ. Despite 2x10th the final races, she took the SL title with 541 points--32 from Liensberger, who closed the season strong. Zrinka will finish no lower than 4^th this season. If she’s EOS 1^st or 2^nd, she’ll be an official SL Big Person.

Also an excellent, developing GS competitor (EOS 10^th and 8^th past two seasons), Ljutic will be WAWC’s best overall Tech racer by 2028, with two more SL titles by 2031. There are several young GS aces whose excellence will deny Zrinka that discipline’s title for at least 6-7 years.

    (FWIW: From my evaluation of ZL in 16 August 2023 Croatia and Czech Republic – 2024 Pre-season notes: “Precocious WAWC 2023 EOS SL 12th at age 19…Well-positioned to begin a Tech rampage—EOS T10 both Disciplines—by 2026, and true stardom if that trajectory’s angle holds for another few seasons… If Zrinka runs another full WAWC SL in 2024, I think she’ll hold steady EOS SL T10/12. Too early for a real breakout, IMO. Definitely an intriguing talent. From such a small team, she’ll have all the support she needs—perhaps more (media) attention than she wants.”) So much for doubting an early breakout.

    (All future season SL projections depend upon Mikaela. She’ll win the discipline for as long as she competes. And never count her out of GS; she’s won two titles.)

   Zrinka's gonna smile for a while. Glavni Talent!

  Camille Rast broke out BIG 2024-25 SL. From mid-twenties finishes with a few DNQ/DNF 2022-23, and fine improvement (5xT8) 2023-24, she rampaged, scoring 2x1st, 3d, 2x4th, and 2x5th over the first seven races. Then a DNF, 11^th, 12^th.  EOS 3d place, 49 points behind title winner Ljutic's 541. Those last irksome results cost her the SL globe; she’s loaded for bear. Turned 26 in July, Rast should win an SL title amidst the frenzy after HH retires.

   Cammy's focused. No time to mess around.

Among Slalom’s Big Four—at least for this new campaign; Petra’s absence is awful—Zrinka and Camille’s subpar final races last season really tightened the EOS podium point spread, and indicate that Katy will need to take it up still another notch to finish as a leader 2025-26, since I don’t think those two, hungry and improving, will falter so again.

Now for the next SL tier. Do these four stars each have another top season in their legs? (They definitely do in their hearts.) I think so. They'll hold T10.

Lena Duerr (34yrs; EOS 5^th 473pts) is hitting it big in her late “prime.” Counting back the past four seasons, she’s EOS SL 5^th, 2^nd, 4^th, 3d. Last season's 2nd; 2x3d; 4th; 4xT10; a single DNF not too shabby. Lena's run full WAWC Tech seasons since 2012: 207 starts (138 SL); no significant injuries AFAICT. A real pro.

Lena's turned on, still in full bloom.

Wendy Holdener (32yrs; 2025 EOS 6^th 469pts) SL career Titan for consistent high finishes, with EOS 2x2nd and 3x3d between 2016 and 2023, injury hampering her since. Lost her brother, Kevin, to cancer/pneumonia in February 2023. Wendy was comfortably 2017 EOS Overall 2nd. Had a rough Soelden; Slalom's her jam, but keeps nose to the GS grindstone. Beloved on the circuit.

Wendy Holdener, a deep soul. Skis fast, too...

Anna Swenn Larsson (34yrs; EOS 7th 347pts)) Swenn Larsson still kicks it, hard. (EOS SL since 2018: 4^th; 3x5th; 3xT10) A 24th and 2x15th hurt 2025 standing. An SL specialist, she didn’t run Soelden this year, so no current reference re her form. Anna’s strong, and very talented. She’ll have 4xT6 and a podium.

EOS SL T10 seven years running, Anna's a Hot Shot.

Sara Hector, GS goddess (EOS 2nd; 2x3d. 2022 Olympic gold), fought a LONG way back from 2015's severe knee injury. Past two seasons’ EOS SL 9^th and 6^th, paired with GS 2x3d, put her Overall 5^th and 4^th. So at thirty-three, Sara's beginning the campaign on a “mature prime peak.” Though her GS eclipses her Slalom, a fourth career EOS SL T10 will lighten the shadow.

     Sara's SO earned another fine Slalom season. She'll have it.

Paula Moltzan is my SL X Factor. She’s gonna break out in Tech—Soelden GS 2^nd shows her focus/ambition matching her skill right now. I think the opening race foreshadows Slalom, and predict EOS SL T5 against generational competition. An NCAA Slalom champion, Paula’s WAWC arc rose nicely, taking 2023 EOS SL 7^th in her third consecutive/full campaign with 5xT5, including a 2nd. A few subpar finishes and 4xDNF offset 3d; 2x5th; 8^th, landing 2024 EOS SL 12^th. Plus she had upper-body/hand injuries, which fortunately healed well.  3xDNF and a 20^th dropped 2024-25 EOS rank to 11^th—otherwise, last season’s 3d; 4x6th; 8^th rhythm was EOS T8 no sweat. So she’s back! Moltzan’s gonna take four Slalom podiums, and finish every race T7, with NO DNFs. This consistency snags her EOS SL T5. I think she’ll wrestle hard through 2028’s Worlds season. Paula’s such a cool person. I wish her the very best for everything.  

  Paula's on a tear for the next couple seasons.

    Along with many other folks, I reckon Lara Colturi is a can’t-miss prodigy, who will EOS SL T7 this season, up from 10^th. She had just 3xT10, including a 2^nd, and a DNF. You could say that’s mediocre with one brilliant flash—or that the door’s wide open for improvement. I think Lara will schuss through. An Italian, she skis for Albania. Indeed, she is Albania’s WAWC competitor. (Turns 19 in November) I imagine big shots in the Federazione Italiana Sport Invernali (FISI, national winter federation) drank bleach over not recognizing/accommodating Colturi’s talent. As I understand it, mom decamped her kid circa spring 2022 when Federata Shqiptare e Skive (FSHS) offered Lara exclusive attention, support, and developmental resources. She’s the youngest top WAWC racer. Flaunting a Red Bull helmet at age fifteen, Lara’s a growing blip on the corporate sports radar. She’ll be huge. T4 Europe's highest-earning winter athletes by 2028.

Lara Colturi, contemplating the Big Time.

Who’s Next:

Melanie Meillard (27yrs) was EOS SL 8^th last season, seven years after 2018 EOS SL 8^th. A rising Tech hot shot at 19, she did her ACL training GS shortly before the Pyeongchang games, and needed further surgery several months later. She missed all of 2019 and most of 2020, after a short attempt. Really rotten luck. Melanie fought her way back, running some European Cup (2022 and 2023 seasons) as well as WAWC, finishing 2023-24 Slalom in 14^th place. (GS seems to have been dropped.) In 2024-25 she posted 3x5th; 4x7th; 10^th—with 28^th and DNF the only blemishes. Meillard’s a contender. No reason to think she won’t be EOS SL T7 when the snowy mist settles next March.

    Melanie's ascendant. Paid harsh injury dues;

she'll have several excellent seasons.

Andreja Slokar (29yrs this November) has also dealt with knee injuries—in 2020, and another autumn 2022, which scotched 2022-23. She dropped GS; 2024 EOS SL 22^nd, then a good EOS 12^th last season. Andreja challenged for T10: 3d; 7^th; 8^th; 2x9th; 2x10th; 12^th. A DNF and a DSQ prevented it. Hopefully she’ll sustain this momentum. I’m not really sure where to slot Slokar EOS. 3d at Sun Valley to close last season shows she can run with the Big People. So, an EOS T10 candidate with another podium, a few T6 finishes, and lose the DNF. Slovenia’s top dog, Andreja gets excellent team support.

Healthy and on form, Andreja can T10 every race.

    I really wonder about Hanna Aronsson Elfman (23yrs in December). 2022-23 EOS SL 10^th, with a 4^th best finish and 3xDNF (240 pts, 3 behind Sara Hector) leaving much room for improvement, I pegged her as the primo young Slalom talent. A left foot stress fracture September 2023 during training was, I understand, judged sufficiently healed by November to permit competition by wearing a stabilizing splint. Sounds rushed to me. Hanna ran nine WAWC slaloms 2023-24, with 2x17th; 19^th; 6xDNF/DNQ. Ouch. She also started five EC races, winning two, with a 6^th and 2xDNFs. Aronsson Elfman started all ten WAWC slaloms last season, with a 12^th her best finish; other 7 averaging around 19^th; 2xDNF/DNQ; EOS SL 21^st. I have to think her poor foot didn’t mend properly, and is still painful or otherwise hindering her skiing. I know strong results at age twenty don’t always reveal prodigious talent, but Hanna was really good in 2022-23. She had that spark, IMO, which truly excellent racers have. I really don’t think she just lost it. A comeback for Hanna Aronsson Elfman is one of my priorities for this season. I say EOS SL T12. She’s young. When fully recovered and back on form, she’ll run at least T7 for years. I SO hope this happens!

    Hanna's past the problems. She'll become a major contender.

So I have about a dozen racers picked to finish the season Top-10. Most of them will. Pre-season predictions are inherently fraught, but excepting injury, reshuffling last year is often pretty accurate mid-March:

EOS SL T10 over the past five seasons feature these folks:

   5 times:  Shiffrin, Duerr, Swenn Larsson

4 times: Vlhova, Liensberger, Holdener. Petra and Wendy each missed a season due to injury.

3 times: Hector, Gisin.

Of 50 total EOS positions, six racers took 33 (65%) of them. Petra and Wendy surely would have brought the total to 35 if not injured. So each season, four racers will breach the previous EOS pecking order. A couple of competitors made two of the past five T10, so the odds for break-through are even a bit longer. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

A few briefs before signing off:

    Katharina Truppe (30yrs in January) 2019 EOS SL 6^th, and 7^th in 2020, Truppe has hovered around 12^th since. Over the past three seasons she’s had 7xT10, including 2x3d, and her first victory last March in Are, the season’s penultimate race. So she can do it! Katharina’s consistently run full schedules; I found no injury reports. A very persistent competitor. Hopefully she’ll contest T10 this year.

    I’m really cheering Ali Nullmeyer's fight back into the game. (27 yrs) A brilliant 2016-17 Nor-Am SL campaign—4x1st; 4x2nd; no DNF; won the title with over double the points from 2^nd—poised her for a fine WAWC rookie season. (A very good Nor-Am GS record, too.) Then…Ali blew out BOTH ACLs in a training crash autumn 2017. She missed the 2018 and 2019 seasons; worked back to WAWC T20 finishes by January 2020, and has 8xT10 since January 2022, including four in 2024 and one last season. What a long, rutted trail Ali’s treading. Athletes’ prolonged painful recovery/rehab from severe knee injuries (often repeatedly) is almost incomprehensible to me. And my research indicates she has recently herniated spinal discs. Jeez. Too many ski racers endure battered corpora. I so hope Ali Nullmeyer regains full strength, form, and most important, can be pain-free.  

AJ Hurt is a spirited young racer (turns 25 in January), fixin’ to make a long Tech run. Her GS is really progressing: EOS 2024 15^th and 2025 14^th, with a strong 13^th at Soelden last month. It was strong because she laid down the 3d fastest 2^nd run, after 18^th to start the day. And there’s the Slalom rub: DNFs. AJ had back pain early last season, and couldn’t push off until late December. But she finished each of seven GS races, and three of six Slaloms. In Kranjska Gora she was 11^th first run, right in T8 striking distance. 20^th 1^st run in Flachau, within T14 range. DNFs put paid to that. We won’t get too far into 2023-24. 3d; 25^th; 3xDNF2; 2xDNF1; 2xDNQ; DSQ1. Back and shoulder pain may well have affected her—easy for (and rude/obnoxious of) me to be critical. But of the three DNF2s, AJ was 9^th, 16^th, 13^th for first runs. I’ll be a tool and say she should have scored at least two of these races. And I’ll say she’ll be EOS SL T15. With one career podium and no other T10s that may be quixotic. But dig, she snagged 3d at Kranjska Gora (January 2024) with fastest 2^nd run after 16^th first. Track conditions weren’t ideal on a mild day, but she thrashed most of The Big People. AJ Hurt’s really good. This year she’ll set up a genuine breakout 2026-27, maybe on Cammy Rast level. And Hurt’s a fine pianist. She and Sofia Goggia should duet—cop a couple Minimoogs and freak the citizenry.