Slalom: A Fight for Third. Red Alert! Overall Title up for grabs!!

Mikaela rips 2nd run. Beat that, my lovelies! Kranjska Gora - SL. 4 January 2026

ALERT: As of this post--9 March--Emma Aicher is 125 points behind Mikaela Shiffrin for the Overall title! Well within striking distance: Shiffrin has 4 races left in the season: SL and GS this weekend at Are; same at Lillehammer in the final meet. Aicher will compete in those, plus a DH and an SG at Lillehammer. Emma has SL 3x3d--she can score close to Mikaela. GS 1xT10 (10th), so MS has considerable edge there. But with a win and a 2nd among her DH 5xT5, and SG 2x1st and a 2nd (along with 11th and 3xDNF, feast or famine in SG), Aicher has a very good chance to take the big globe. Her Highness must have at least 2x1st and 2xpodium to secure her 9th Overall title, I'd reckon. Of course, she can run the final Lillehammer SG to score insurance points if needed, DH too if it's close. In any event, Mikaela's difficult but fine GS campaign post-impalement (5xT5--5th, 3x4th, 3d) may leave her vulnerable.

Gonna be a wild finish!!

 NOTE: Mostly written before Olympics.

I was going to title this post “What’s The Point?” re the futility of anyone except Shiffrin competing for the WAWC Slalom globe. But she has a podcast so entitled; also, it’s pretty clear SL is a tussle for third place. MS has the title clinched; Camille Rast is about 135 points ahead of 3d-place Wendy Holdener, with two races to go.

    Mikaela’s won seven of eight slalom races this season, settling for second by 0.14 at Kranjska Gora. In her epic 2018-19 campaign—15 victories, including 4xGS and 3xSG—she took 8 of 9 slaloms, with a 2^nd. This pre-season I picked her to win five of the scheduled ten, and podium the rest; I’m not sure if that showed ignorance, or disrespect. Shiffrin’s SL mastery… Her single GS podium, scored this Saturday, confirms she’s not a machine, having to regain confidence in a discipline she can nearly dominate when in peak form. (EOS since 2017: 2x1st; 2x2nd; 3x3d; 5^th. WAWC career leader in GS wins: 22.)

    Point is, her slalom skill can endure anything, I guess except a rare faltering nerve/focus, as in Beijing. The way she’s dialed in this year, anything besides gold at Cortina will be failure. Except if, as I’m beginning to suspect, disdain for Olympic hoopla has her on the verge of saying “Fuck it. Whatever happens, happens.”

    These days, Cami is the only competitor who can beat Mikaela in a complete 2-run slalom race. Unless she DNFs, Shiffrin will probably win. (Rast’s victory at Kranjska Gora was an extraordinary race: the top four each had fastest 1^st and 2^nd runs, in finish order. It would be annoying to research, but I bet that’s happened just once. Also, three racers had identical 2^nd run times. With timing to the hundredth of a second, this is very rare.)

    Given Rast’s superb SL chops, and almost unbelievable reliability (3xDNF, 3xDNQ in Slalom since January 2021), I think her chances of beating Shiffrin in any given race—in this case the 2026 Olympics—must be almost 50/50. You’re chuckling, I know. Except for Semmering, where she took Cami by 0.09 (and T5 were within a second), and by 0.41 over Paula Moltzan at Flachau, HH has won her races by at least 1.23, and usually over 1.50. But we must distinguish between odds and probability: judging from Mikaela’s winning 7 of 8 slaloms, and just one being at all close, and her intense focus/motivation for Olympic gold, she’ll probably win at Cortina. Each race in itself, however, is still a coin flip, since just a couple small errors combined with a competitor’s fast run can make a few hundredths difference and that’s all it takes. (Like everyone, Shiffrin makes small errors on most of her runs, but they rarely matter against her speed and otherwise airtight execution.)

    So, who’s looking good for third place?

    56 points span 3d through 6^th in the standings, with 7^th 58 points behind 6^th. I’m certain at least EOS 3d, 4^th, and very likely 5^th will be from Wendy Holdener, Katharina Truppe, Lara Colturi, Paula Moltzan. Anna Swenn Larsson, Emma Aicher, and Lena Duerr are within 14 points of each other for 7^th, and one could sneak into 6^th or 5^th, but that would mean pronounced finish position decline/DNF for the front-runners.

    Wendy Holdener has finished each race, averaging 5^th place. Best 3d; lowest 8^th. Consistent run times an issue—eg. 2^nd and 10^th at Spindleru Mlyn; 8^th and 20^th at Courcheval; 6^th and 18^th at Semmering. But she’s steady-Wendy. I think she’ll be EOS SL 3d.

Katharina Truppe, a 10-year Tech vet now focusing on Slalom, is having her best season by a solid margin. No DNFs, 5xT5 including a 3d, Truppe is right there for EOS 4^th no sweat if she holds form. Just 17 points behind Wendy, EOS 3d wouldn’t be a surprise. Katharina has consistent runs, with an effective secure but strong racing style. She’s not flashy, just gets it done.

  Paula Moltzan is also having her career best season by far. With SL 5xT5 including a 2^nd, 2xDNF are way costly, especially most recent race at Spindelru. 5^th first run, she was primed for 45 points for just holding position, and solid 4^th place in standings. But she’s still 7th place Overall (4th before post-Olympics Speed events), outstanding as a 2-discipline competitor. Catching Wendy for EOS SL 3d will be a chore, but she can do it with a podium and T5 if Holdener is off-song for a race.

    This is a mercurial campaign for Lara Colturi. 2x2nd and 3d first three starts, she’s gone DNF, 3d, DNF, 8^th, DNF—with each retirement on opening run. Just 19 years old, Lara deserves to be cut some slack. She’s so good, though, with technique admired by everyone on tour. It’s weird to see such a drop-off.

    Her DNFs were all different. At Courcheval she was smooth and sharp, within a quarter second of leader Rast, who would finish the race 2^nd.  A half-dozen gates from the finish, she cuts a right turn too close and straddles, just like that.

Ripping it at Kranjska Gora, about a third of the way through the course she’s way back on her skis, they shoot up/out, and she’s down hard.

  At foggy Spindleru Mlyn an indifferent start, picking it up, then halfway she exits a flush hot, skids way out, recovers but too late and straddles next gate.

I show these errors because they aren’t shown often. Only a few ski slalom better than Lara on-form; she’s probably the best teenager since Mikaela. Here we see how even a gifted racer can go badly off-track in almost an instant. How precise the Tech disciplines are. (Her father, who is her/Albania’s coach, set the course for the Kranjs heat. The national team coaches cycle through this duty throughout the season. Sometimes it’s an advantage; I think I’ve seen as many racers ski out of sympathetic gate sets as excel on them.) Lara’s 5^th place in the SL standings, still in the hunt. A return to early-season form and she’ll at least remain there or take 4^th. In the long run, 2026 will be a footnote to Colturi’s career, I’m sure. She’d love to medal at Cortina and expand her profile beyond genuine ski racing fans. I’m most interested in how she grinds the rest of the regular season.

  Cami beat it.

By 0.14.