Cortina - GS prediction

Julia Scheib will be on, and take first place.

Giant Slalom is probably ski racing’s most competitive discipline; arguably its most difficult. Combining around 45-50 gates taken at 40+ mph, with average run time around a minute, two runs per race, GS demands constant technical precision at speed. Lara Gut-Behrami, IMO the most fiercely elegant Super-G racer of the past ten years, said winning the GS season title (2024) was her top achievement. Almost every Tech specialist runs GS; some key Speed specialists do as well. The discipline has the strongest field of contestants, AFAICT.

    Thus, predicting one race’s result by the season’s established rhythm is especially dicey.

    NOTE: Snow conditions for the Technical races will be a higher-profile issue, obviously, than for regular WAWC events. Temperatures have been milder than usual for February. A soft track for the Combined’s Slalom leg raised eyebrows. The course was salted intermittently during the competition, to harden the snow. The track also wasn’t as steep/challenging as most WAWC pitches, I believe. (Cortina doesn’t host WAWC Tech events, just Speed.)

Weather report looks overcast but decently cold—in the mid-twenties Fahrenheit. That’s good.

    I think Julia Scheib will win at Cortina.  In this season’s eight GS races she’s 4x1st, 2x2nd…and 2xDNF, one on first run, one on second—the most recent at Spindleruv Mlyn before the Games break. Overly aggressive skiing and/or shaky nerves cause most DNFs.

Spindleruv Mlyn 2nd run she was locked in, railing it until skidding out halfway down. She didn't fall; looks like both skis lost edge on right-footer. Tremblant 1st run--cruising rhythmically, aggressive and sure, then wide on a right-footer halfway down and tore through next gate. Won next day's race. So her mishaps appear due to aggressiveness. More easily resolved than nerves, I'd think. Hopefully these offs purged the system. Heavy expectations, being Austrian and a one-event contestant.

    Though Cami Rast has been solid, with a win, 2x2nd, 3x4th, 5^th, and a wayward 15^th opening race (no DNFs!), and Sara Hector is charging—1^st, 2^nd, 2x3d, and 4^th in last five races—I think it’s Julia’s to lose. She’s clearly superior when she’s on.

    So I’ll confidently go with Scheib, Rast, and Hector in order for podium.

    Mikaela’s GS is excellent, too, especially considering she’s got that medieval wound in her head. (By her own admission. For a professional athlete, Shiffrin’s candor is rare and admirable.) A secure 4^th in the standings, she could podium if a couple hot shots falter, but I think this round the top dogs will snarl. Hector’s defending gold medalist, a consummate pro; Rast is in her real breakout year, but seems genuinely solid, cool. Scheib strikes me as someone who, like Petra Vlhova, has more on her mind beyond ski racing than most competitors do. Just a hit I get. If Julia’s locked in, which she usually is, she’ll win the race.

    Paula Moltzan is tied for 5^th in GS standings, with a couple of DNFs and a 13^th suppressing her rank. But she has a pair of 2^nd places, including the most recent race at Spindleruv Mlyn, to go with a 3d. At Spindle she had fastest second run; Hector pipped her by 0.18 for the win. Soelden 2x2nd fastest runs for, uhh, 2^nd; Kranjska Gora 2^nd and 5^th fastest for 3d place. As with Mikaela, Paula will podium if she skis her best and any of top three scrub even a touch.  

    This season, I’d picked Alice Robinson to win the title comfortably. She’s currently tied with Paula for 5^th; with 8 of 10 races run, even with two wins she won’t finish third unless a current podium racer lets down significantly. 2xDNF, DNQ, and 13^th in last four races have scotched her title chances, after 2x1st, 3d, 8^th to begin GS campaign.

    For this race, however, Alice may relax and say “Bone it, I’m gonna just ski,” and place high. Certainly Robinson feels pressure to do well at the Olympics, but she’s young and will compete in at least two more games; the GS title is out of reach. At the risk of sounding like a dick, there’s not much to lose at Cortina.

    Outside of the top standings denizens, I’ll pick Grenier, Gasienica-Daniel, and Brignone to do well. Fede's SG victory was off the scope, as a GREAT story. But not shocking from a racing perspective. DH T10th proved her leg can take it. (Though she was very sore afterwards.) Excellent in SG last season, she was totally ON for Cortina. I underestimated/underappreciated her complete Greatness. Fede aced GS last year for the title. She’s starting 14^th tomorrow so track will be a bit cut but okay. It’ll be a real test for her leg.

   I gotta say Nina O’Brien could put down two good runs.